NASCAR heads into its third 1.5-mile oval track this year, and the very first time all year we’ll see a repeat at the principles package and tire wear mix. Texas is a low tire wear oval, similar to Las Vegas, prior to the 2017 season thanks to reconfiguration and its repave.
Because of this, this race in Texas should most closely resemble the race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway — another 1.5-mile low tire wear oval that used the aero duct bundle.
NASCAR Props Challenge nba picks for Sunday’s Texas O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
Read today Not only will I’m leaning heavily on Las Vegas, but we should also think of the races at Atlanta Motor Speedway and Auto Club Speedway, that have been run under comparable, but not entirely comparable circumstances. I’ll also use Texas data since the 2017 repave.
There are 3 matchups that provide value.
Kevin Harvick (+130) over Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch is the defending race winner at Texas along with the most popular driver on the circuit, which will be driving Busch’s price on this one. But give me Harvick at Texas. Westgate has this in +130 if you’re in Las Vegas for the NCAA Tournament. In reality, I take Harvick down to +120. Looking at flag speed at Las Vegas, Atlanta and Auto Club’s three big ovals, Harvick gets the rate, edging out Busch who comes from third. Looking at Las Vegas Harvick had the quickest green flag average speed while Busch came in third.